About Surf Forecasts

I call it the Thirty Buck Breakfast. Encouraged by a favorable early a.m. surf forecasts, you fuel up your low-MPG vehicle, waste half a tank of gas driving past an ever-lengthening succession of deserted spots — all of them either blown-out or flat as a pond in the forest — until you finally surrender, have a gut-bomb breakfast at Denny's, and drive home dry.

In the information age, how can this happen? Too much information, maybe. Data-driven surf forecasts and remotely-sensed reports often tell you a lot of things except what you really need to know.

Much of the stuff sucking bandwidth is data from automated sources crunched by software programmed by people who may or may not have a clue what's important for surfers. Typically, they churn out projections — potential surf outcomes rather than reports that nail what actually exists. That’s simply what software does best. But “what ifs?” often miss the here-and-nows. For example, the leading edge of big, long-period swells typically eludes computer models and rudely rolls in unannounced. Short of an earlier-rising friend eye-witnessing conditions and sending me text messages from water’s edge, how can I separate hype from hope in online surf forecasts?

The buoys of summer and winter. NOAA buoy data takes a snapshot of what's out there real-time, tracking size of incoming swells along with wind direction and period (the interval between waves.) The network extends far enough off the coast to provide a picture of what's on on tap for the next 24 hours, too. Buoy-generated reports deliver "Significant Sea Height" as a standard figure, and lots of people look no further than that. What SSH really represents, though, is the average height of the largest 1/3 of waves in all swells passing a particular buoy at a given instant. That coarse number may aggregate multiple swells from diverse directions, leading to an exaggerated total figure and inflated expectations. "Pure swell height and period," a nearshore calculation filtered from NOAA buoy data and individualized to specific swell directions, is a more reliable figure of what will actually break at any specific spot. Typically, only the paid subscription surf forecasts provide pure swell calculations online. But if you’re coming a long way and want to avoid disappointment when you get there, it’s worth it.

Period matters, period. Everyone talks size, but wave period really tells you about quality. A smaller groundswell with a long period will produce more surfable wave face than a short-period large swell, which is probably wind-related. Depending on the break, long period will be cleaner and more peeling. Different breaks (beach versus point) convert period differently, but once you know what works where, you can start paying more attention to those seconds that follow the feet in surf reports.

Eyes in the sky. A constellation of satellites wheels overhead. We paid for them, so what can they tell us about present-moment surf conditions? I venture to say, “Not much” — unless you have a degree in satellite imagery interpretation and lots of time on your hands. You might think otherwise, however, given the galaxy of slow-loading sat images some sites throw at you. Most actually provide data relevant to the maritime industry, which lobbied for them, and which has a whole different agenda than surfers. Basically, the most surf-specific sat data relates to wind speed and Signficant Sea Height of any storms already affecting your little slice of coast. If you must get that info from high earth orbit instead of local buoys, you can find out all that matters from two birds: QuickScat (winds) and Jason-1 or -2 (sea height.) Anything else satellites might tell you about local conditions you can pretty much get by looking out the window. Bathymetry rules. That’s the depth and conformation of the sea floor beneath your board and how it changes surf conditions as the tide rolls in and out. Change they do, but aside from some generalities, it’s a spot-specific thing: Some breaks bear up through a high tide while others are notorious for degrading into a sloshing bathtub hours before. Conversely, some spots you learn to avoid when it’s drained out. Personal experience with the peculiarities of your preferred destination, plus a certain intimacy with the phases of the moon as represented in tide forecasts for your locale, will be helpful. I just use a tide table widget, myself.

Can you see me now? Surf cams have lagged technologically, but come a long way in acceptance and even dependence. Though most are mounted at the obvious, high-traffic spots, today everybody’s got a few bookmarked. Anyone remember when they were an intrusion, a violation of the constitutionally-protected right to privacy if/when the surf starts firing? I overheard serious conversations in a late-1990s lineup about the marksmanship required to shoot out one conspicuously-placed surfcam, thus preventing hordes of home viewers from seeing what they were missing. If they even could see it in the first place, that is. Until recently, most cams have been stuck in a low-tech time warp, resolution-wise. Now some of the paid services have (finally) entered the HD era. And, the sport seems poised for a further techo-leap: An Australian company is working on video-recognition software that will count the frequency of incoming waves in the picture, time the period, estimate size, and even tell you how many of your very best friends are out there catching them while you’re stuck at work. All this will auto-update in a sidebar to a full-motion live HD video stream on your smartphone or iPad. Nothing like being able to see there before you can actually BE there — and paddle into that picture yourself.

Have A Great Story About This Topic?

Do you have a great story about this? Share it!